The Implosion Moves Outward

For most of human history, population implosion involved concentration within small geographical areas. Urban agglomerations generally had only, at most, a few thousand residents (Davis 1955 Winsborough 1963). In addition, transportation, communication, and building construction were relatively primitive by standards of recent decades. Most movement was by foot, and most communication occurred by face-to-face contact. Given the primitive development of transportation and communication, most...

Substantive Concerns

Age and sex are two central features of a population. Populations are not homogeneous units. They differ by age, sex, race ethnicity, marital status, and a host of other characteristics. Accordingly, the study of population composition receives considerable attention in demography. In his chapter in The Study of Population, Hawley (1959) mentions four objectives that are served by the study of population composition (also see Namboodiri 1996 chapter 7) 1. Data on composition make possible an...

Cohabitation

Many contemporary couples begin their life together not in a marriage but when they begin sharing a residence. In some countries, cohabitation is a socially recognized form of partnership that is quite stable and is a permanent alternative to marriage. In other countries, cohabitation appears to be more like a stage in the courtship process. In the United States, unmarried heterosexual cohabitation has become so common that the majority of marriages and remarriages are preceded by cohabitation,...

Structure of the Family

In the U.S. and many industrialized societies, the structure of the family looks quite different than it did a half a century ago. In fact, fewer people live in families as traditionally defined and more live in nonfamily households. The rise in nonfamily living can be traced to earlier nest-leaving by young adults (Goldscheider, Thornton, and Young-DeMarco 1993), to delayed marriage and to nonmarriage, to continued high rates of marital disruption with lower rates of remarriage (Cherlin 1992),...

Conclusions And Research Directions

A complex web of elements shapes adult mortality patterns, risks, and causes. As such, demography has arisen as an interdisciplinary field that derives insights from sociology, geography, economics, history, biology, epidemiology, and medicine to better understand the multidimensional forces that shape mortality in the contemporary world. Future work that seeks to better understand the causes and consequences of adult mortality in the U.S. and throughout the globe must capitalize on the...

On Mobility

Some Major Findings Regarding Social Mobility in the U.S. In the extant literature, the common if not perennial fear among students of American social mobility is that it is on the decline.26 For the most part, however, this conclusion has not been evident in the major modern studies of intergenerational occupational mobility for the U.S. Featherman and Hauser's (1978) meticulous study of the OCG-I and OCG-II data sets finds increased mobility and reduced ascription between 1962 and 1973 for a...

Description Of Social Patterns And Trends

There is a great social and economic demand for objective information about population characteristics and trends. This need arises, in part, from popular curiosity of people wanting to know if others are like them and share common experiences. Businesses want to know about potential markets for goods and services and whether demand is likely to grow or shrink (see chapter 25, Small Area and Business Demography, in this Handbook). Public authorities also seek information about current and...

Theoretical Issues

We begin by distinguishing between analytic frameworks and causal behavioral theories. Analytic frameworks are useful ways to organize data, and they capture structural aspects of the process. Fertility research has produced widely accepted and very useful analytic frameworks. However, these analytic frameworks are largely silent regarding the more distal social causes of fertility trends and group differences. There is much greater disagreement regarding the relative value of these more distal...

Other Methodological Issues

Many of the methodological issues involved in the study of infant mortality are similar, if not identical, to those associated with research in other substantive areas and are more appropriately discussed in the demographic methods literature. However, certain methodological matters need to be addressed here because they are integral to the success of efforts to describe and or account for variation in infant mortality. distributional issues. The birth weight distribution ''is composed of at...

Population Decline Amidst Suburban Growth

Since the suburban rings are growing so dramatically over time, one might superficially assume that nearly all parts of the suburban ring are also growing. This need not be true. As previously pointed out, urban centers before the late 1800s accommodated population growth by increasingly concentrating residents in relatively fixed areas. But the development of high-speed transportation and communication permits the well-known phenomenon of sprawl, where new territories are continually developed...

Changing Suburban Development

Much of our understanding of suburbs rests on the literature and observations of the middle part of the 20th century. However, new social forces have emerged in recent decades, and the major dimensions of the suburban community demand charting. What are the key questions and the possible answers about changing suburban development One set of questions deals with the degree to which suburbs continue to grow rapidly in population, especially relative to their central cities. No one doubts that...

Trajectories of Population Aging

From the perspective of the early 21st century one can see an amazing revolution of demographic behavior that began slowly in Europe in the 18th century and accelerated around the world in the 20th century. All populations before the demographic transition, as the revolution is generally called, had to contend with high death rates. When half or fewer of all babies survived to adulthood, fertility was necessarily high or a population would not survive. Under these conditions of high fertility...

Gender in Demography Increasing Attention

How do we measure the amount and extent of scholarship on gender in demography There are a number of signposts, and most suggest that work on gender has increased significantly over the last 15 years or so. Perhaps the best illustration of the recency of demography's attention to gender is the direct involvement of the International Union for the Scientific Study of Population (IUSSP) in issues of gender (see Federici, Mason, and Sogner 1993). Early discussions in IUSSP led to a 1988 conference...

Identifying Resistance

Research that has sought out and analyzed incidents of resistance has also contributed to the understanding of gender's role in demographic change. Resistance, of course, comes in many shapes and has any number of directions or targets. Women or men might resist their proscribed roles as wives, husbands, fathers, or mothers they can resist those who keep them from their own goals they might resist policies (pronatalist or antinatalist policies, for example) or they could resist something even...

Theoretical Models

There is a polarity in the organization of knowledge, between analysis and synthesis, between the sifting and organization of the hard data that were collected long ago for different purposes, and the models that are often based on intuition but serve to organize the facts as they are gathered. These models interpret historical events into intellectually satisfying constructs that are not necessarily grounded in sound evidence when they are proposed but that provide hypotheses to be tested in...

Marital Disruption and Union Dissolution

A substantial proportion of all marriages end in divorce or separation due to marital discord. The divorce rate, which reflects the number of divorces in a year relative to the number of married people, rose continuously for more than a century in the U.S. and many similar industrialized countries, then leveled off at a fairly high level in about 1980 (Goldstein 1999). In the U.S., the best estimates suggest that around one-half of all marriages will end in separation or divorce rather than in...

Empirical Findings

One of the most important changes in the labor force has been the shift in women's age-specific labor force participation rates (Bianchi 1995). In the middle of the 20th century, these rates when graphed against age formed the shape of the letter M. The rates rose through the young adult years, declined after marriage (or later, after first birth), rose after the children had left home, and finally declined again after retirement age. But with each succeeding year, the M shape changed. The...

Research Exemplars

From its beginnings in the study of the fertility and mortality of individuals, historical demography has evolved steadily toward the consideration of entire social structures and their dynamics in time and space. In this section, we consider two exemplars of research on opposite sides of this continuum between the micro- and macrodemographic focuses. The first example indicates how the study of individual records from village populations of the past can be made to yield surprisingly revealing...

Research Directions

Many of the most important labor force studies will continue the lines of research mentioned in the preceding section, but there are important additional research directions that are now receiving attention from researchers. In the advanced industrial societies, labor force participation rates have typically declined with advancing age. In many countries, there is a customary or even legally enforced retirement age. Programs such as Social Security must carefully model the number of retired...

Health and Health Care

Over the past two centuries all developed countries have experienced an epidemiological transition characterized by declining death rates and shifting cause-of-death patterns. Before this transition most people died of infectious diseases (smallpox, scarlet fever, tuberculosis, influenza, and pneumonia, etc.), which affected all ages. The young were especially vulnerable, and most people did not survive to old age (Caldwell 2001 Riley 2001). With the conquest of infectious diseases, mortality...

Distal Causes

SES has various dimensions, including not only education and income, but also community standing, power, and wealth (Moss and Krieger 1995). High levels of SES can reduce mortality risks through a number of mechanisms, in a variety of situations, and for numerous causes of death (Adler et al. 1994 Kitagawa and Hauser 1973 Link and Phelan 1995). First, high SES often reduces exposure to factors that lead to morbidity, disability, and eventually mortality. For example,...

Biomedical Demography

As noted at the outset of this chapter, biodemography pertains to two different fields, namely biological demography and biomedical demography. These two fields are as distinct as biology is from biomedicine. This chapter has emphasized the concepts and findings of biological demography, in part because the concepts and findings are less familiar to most demographers. The last few pages of this chapter will now turn to the other branch of biodemography. The number of demographers working in the...

Public Pension Programs

Almost all industrialized countries have established public pension programs that collect taxes from the current working population, often levied as a payroll tax, to provide benefits to the current retired population. An example of this approach is the Social Security program in the United States. This type of pension system is referred to as an unfunded pay-as-you-go (PAYG) pension, reflecting the fact that the contributions of current workers are not being invested in assets to be used to...

Future Research Directions

The ways in which fertility, mortality, and migration determine the pattern of population aging are well understood by demographers, but there are many opportunities for researchers to expand understanding of the social, economic, political, and health implications of population aging. A growing number of researchers from multiple disciplines and many countries are engaged in exploring diverse aspects of global population aging. Recognizing the value of coordinating some of the research on this...

Methods And Measures

The fundamental concepts of labor force, employment and unemployment, and their corresponding rates, have already been introduced. These rates can be computed for different demographic groups and for different geographical areas. Labor force data are gathered from surveys or censuses because most administrative records of employment are incomplete. In particular, unemployment compensation records exclude a large number of the unemployed, including entrants to the labor force who have not yet...

Population Aging and Kinship Structure

The demographic forces responsible for population aging (declining fertility and declining mortality at older ages) have significant implications for the structure of kinship networks. Particularly relevant for the well-being of both older and younger people are changes in the structure of intergenerational relationships associated with an aging society. The basic relationship among fertility, mortality, and supply of intergenera-tional kin can be seen by thinking about extreme situations. In a...

Demographic Research On The Level Of Inequality

Demographic Factors Affecting the Level of Poverty One of the fundamental indicators of inequality in a population is its level of poverty, which is typically measured as the proportion of households whose income falls below some specified poverty threshold (i.e., the poverty rate).30 Because poverty thresholds vary by household size (and, to a lesser extent, composition), Bumpass and Sweet (1981) note that processes of family formation and change can have direct effects on the incidence of...

Gender and Fertility

The connections between gender and fertility at the community societal level are clearly strong but complicated. Mason (1993 30ff) has hypothesized seven major links between women's position and fertility. These include the ways that women's economic and social independence might delay age at marriage and how women's access to knowledge and technology can influence women's innovative behavior,'' including fertility regulation. A series of potential links revolves around the way that women's...

Marriage

Marriage is a legal contract between two individuals to form a sexual, productive, and reproductive union. Through the marriage, this union is recognized by family, society, religious institutions, and the legal system. Marriage defines the relationship of the two individuals to each other, to any children they might have, to their extended families, to shared property and assets, and to society generally. It also defines the relationship of others, including social institutions, toward the...

Measures

Two basic measures of marriage and divorce are based on events occurring in a calendar year as captured by vital statistics. The marriage rate is measured as the number of marriages in a year per 1,000 population. The divorce rate is measured as the number of divorces in a year per 1,000 population. These rates present snapshots of marital events, which can be compared across years to see if the events of marriage and divorce are taking place at a faster or slower rate than in the past...

Power and Empowerment

Recently, demographers interested in understanding gender's role in fertility and mortality have focused on the issues of power and empowerment. While not all agree that this is the best way to understand gender's role in demographic behavior, this work has nevertheless produced insights into these issues, as suggested above in our discussions of Balk (1994) and Durrant and Sathar (2000). Discussion of a few pieces of research cannot do justice to all that is being done but will give the flavor...

Rqgeliq Saenz and M Cristina Morales

One of the most permanent features of many societies, especially the United States, is racial and ethnic stratification. Many immigrant groups have been integrated into the different dimensions of American life, while others have remained relatively marginalized. The road toward inclusion is particularly difficult for groups that initially gained entrance to the United States through involuntary means (e.g., warfare and conquest) and for those with more pronounced racial and cultural...

Stable Population Theory And Its Extensions

Deterministic models of population growth exist in two forms (1) those that use a continuous time variable and a continuous age scale (Lotka 1907 Sharpe and Lotka 1911) and (2) those using a discrete time variable and a discrete age scale (Bernadelli 1941 Lewis 1941 and Leslie 1945 Sykes 1969). Both have advantages. The discrete formulation is closer to demographic practice in population projections. But the continuous formulation is closer to continuous life table stationary population theory....

Methods And Measures Measuring Infant Mortality

Infant mortality refers to death within the first year of life to persons born alive. A live birth is defined as the complete expulsion or extraction from its mother of a product of 4 For a comprehensive discussion of the social origins and of the analytic importance of race and ethnicity as key dimensions in social science theory, see Bonilla-Silva (1999). conception, irrespective of the duration of pregnancy, which after such separation breathes or shows any other evidence of life'' and death...