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7 In 2002, Bravata et al. (Bravata et al., 2004) conducted an evidence based study of 55 detection systems and 23 diagnostic decision support systems that could potentially be used for biosurveillance. Although this study was premature in that many of the systems studied were in early phases of development, the conclusions are still valid. The researchers used an explicit decision analytic focus and found that these systems were not in their then present levels of development capable of producing actionable information. In particular, their sensitivity and specificities had not been measured. None of them had cost models.

Cooke, R.M. (1991). Experts in Uncertainty: Opinion and Subjective Probability in Science. Oxford University Press, New York, NY. This book discusses in detail the elicitation and use of expert opinion in science.

DeGroot, M.H. (1970) Optimal Statistical Decisions. New York: McGraw-Hill Publishing. This book contains axiomatic development of subjective probability theory and utility theory.

Hammond, J.S, Keeney, R.L., and Raiffa, H. (1998). Smart Choices: A Practical Guide to Making Better Decisions. New York: Broadway Books.

Hunink, M., et al (2001). Decision Making in Health and Medicine. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Lindley, D.V. (1988). Making Decision, 2nd ed. London: John Wiley & Sons. This classic introduces decision theory using only elementary mathematics.

Savage, L.J. (1972). The Foundations of Statistics, 2nd ed. New York: Dover Publications. This classic book by a pioneer in Bayesian statistics describes the foundations of subjective probability and utility.

von Winterfeldt, D. and Edwards, W. (1988). Decision Analysis and Behavioral Research. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1988.

Weinstein, M. C. and Fineberg, H. V. (1980). Clinical Decision Analysis. W.B. Saunders, Philadelphia, PA.

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