Specifying Numerical Parameters

Once the structure of the model is completed, the decision analyst quantifies the model. This process involves the elicitation of numerical parameters for the probabilities and costs in the model. Parameters of the model from experts and published studies are elicited (Raiffa, 1968; Howard and Matheson, 1984a).

Our example model requires the following numerical parameters: the probability p that there is an ongoing Cryptosporidium outbreak and values for the variables cb1, cb2, cb3, and cb4 that represent costs and benefits incurred for each outcome of the model (Figure 29.3).

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