Optimizing the Spatial Model Parameters

The spatial model was also optimized using the process described in Section 4.4. Figure 18.12 illustrates the structure of the optimized spatial person model, which is based on the optimized person model in Figure 18.6. We will refer to this model as the optimized spatial model.

Figure 18.13 illustrates the AMOC curve for the optimized spatial models when compared to the nonoptimized spatial model. The optimized spatial model improves the detection time of the non-optimized spatial model by nearly five hours. Optimizing the decay rate seems to have minimal effect on the detection time. At zero false positives, the detection times are 39.7 and 34.7 for the spatial model and the optimized spatial model, respectively. The corresponding maximum 95% confidence interval widths for the two models are ± 1.55 and 1.37 hours, respectively.

figure 18.10 The person model modified to incorporate spatial information as well as temporal fluctuations due to day of week,season,and time of day.

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