One Stage Inverted Models

The Population-wide ANomaly Detection and Assessment (PANDA) algorithm contains a causal model of a release of B. anthracis spores into the atmosphere and inverts the model using Bayesian inversion. It does not use a model of a model of atmospheric dispersion, however. Chapter 18 describes PANDA and its spatial model that is based on simulations produced from BARD.

A newer version of BARD is a one-stage model (Hogan et al., 2005). The motivation for this version of BARD was the inaccuracy of the estimate of the release location that the previous version computed. The source of much of the inaccuracy was the IGPM. Preliminary studies show that the one-stage version of BARD estimates release location to within 3.5 km. The previous version estimated it to within 35 km. Research is ongoing into whether the estimate can be improved further.

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