Incorporating the Spatial Distribution of Cases into the Model

In this section, we describe changes to the PANDA model to account for the situation in which an anthrax release infects people in more than one zip code. In particular, we added a new interface node, called Angle of Release, which describes the orientation of the airborne anthrax release and takes on the eight possible values of N, NE, E, SE, S, SW, W, or NW, as shown in Figure 18.8. Figure 18.9 depicts the modified person model, which is based on the original nonoptimized model shown in Figure 18.4. For computational reasons, Figure 18.9 shows that we decomposed the previous Anthrax Infection

figure 18.7 The AMOC curves for the optimized person model for the four anthrax dosages.

node in Figure 18.4 into an Exposed to Anthrax node and a new Anthrax Infection node. We will refer to this modified version of PANDA as the spatial model and the previous version will be referred to as the non-spatial model.

The Exposed to Anthrax node represents the probability that the person is exposed to anthrax during a release, given

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