Additional Methods

A complete set of approaches would require a very thick book, such as Hamilton (1994). The purpose of this chapter has been a tour of a sufficient variety of approaches to introduce the reader to some of the issues faced when choosing or implementing a time-series-based method, without going into the table 14.2 Experiments with Univariate Methods

Average Performance Over 1000 Simulated Outbreaks

Fraction of Spike Outbreaks Detected Number of Days Until Ramp Outbreak Detected

Average Performance Over 1000 Simulated Outbreaks

Fraction of Spike Outbreaks Detected Number of Days Until Ramp Outbreak Detected

Method

1 FP every two Weeks

1 FP every ten weeks

1 FP every two weeks

1 FP every ten weeks

Standard control chart

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